TRACK STATS

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  1. Breaking down Rojas’ triple jump world record

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    Was there a bigger favourite for gold in Tokyo than Yulimar Rojas? She ends 2021 with the top eight marks in the women’s triple jump and jumped two feet further than her nearest rival. It was a peerless season that has seen her also dominate the all-time list, where she now holds six of the top 10 marks.

    The bigger question in Tokyo was whether she would have a world record to go with her gold medal. Rojas had been relentlessly chasing it all season, coming within 7cm of Inessa Kravets’ mark (15.50m) back in May. Although it was to be a perfectly choreographed moment on the biggest stage in August where she would jump an enormous 15.67m.

    Let’s break down the jump using the official analysis from the Olympics to get an insight of just how she did it.

    Rojas’ world record jump phases (metres)

    Two phases are particularly notable: an incredible jump phase at 5.99m, but a relatively modest 3.82m step phase. It is tempting to look at the latter and see it as an area for improvement. Indeed, looking at the data from the top-eight Olympic finalists, it shows that Rojas places last for her step phase—but first for both her hop and jump phases. While this variation can be seen in her fellow medallists, Patricia Mamona and Ana Peleteiro, it’s not as extreme.

    Rank for each individual phase

    Top eight athletes, Olympic final

    We asked Dr Catherine Tucker, senior lecturer in sports and exercise biomechanics at Leeds Beckett University, for her view on Rojas’ jump. “For some athletes, the step phase can be a significant contributor to overall distance or sometimes it can be just a transition between the hop and jump phases.” Tucker, who has produced biomechanical reports for World Athletics, also says “it’s clear that Rojas is able to achieve longer distances maintaining her step phases at approximately 27% of her total distance.” And indeed less in her world-record breaking jump where it was around 24%.

    Contribution of each phase to overall distance (%)

    Tucker highlighted that a significant factor to Rojas finally achieving the world record is her combination of approach speed and accuracy on the board. The principle of the triple jump is to maximise horizontal velocity into the board and try and maintain it, while gaining vertical velocity across the hop, step and jump phases. Rojas’ approach speed was clocked at 40.2km/h—which, if accurate, puts her amongst the world’s best sprinters. Combining this with her placement ahead of the board (2.6cm), allowed her to make the most of that speed driving two massive hop and jump phases (with the step functioning as a transition).

    Could we see Rojas better her own record? Tucker says it’s possible, but probably by improving on the same approach: “it may not be in the extension of the step phase… it may be through reaching a high a run-up speed as possible with accurate placement on the board meaning she can optimise her hop and jump phases”.

    Even if she doesn’t, Rojas gifted us with a magical Olympic moment. We could speculate on what she could do in the 100m with that top speed, or even the long jump with that 5.99m final leap. But it’s probably best that we should marvel in her exceptional mastery of this event and see how far she can take it.

  2. Heptathlon: Thiam delivers historic double

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    Nafissatou Thiam joins Jackie Joyner-Kersee to become only the second woman to complete an Olympic double in the heptathlon. Thiam’s sequal to Rio 2016 went to the form book, particularly as reigning world champion Katarina Johnson-Thompson pulled up injured in the 200m at the end of the first day.

    It was a Dutch affair for the remaining medals. Anouk Vetter broke her national record with 6689 to gain silver. Emma Oosterwegel forced her way to bronze in the 800m at the expense of USA’s Kendell Williams, who was in third position coming into the final event.

    Name
    Total
    100m hurdles
    High jump
    Shot put
    200m
    Long jump
    Javelin
    800m

  3. Decathlon: Warner joins the 9,000-point club

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    Canada’s Damian Warner has joined an elite group of men with 9,000+ points in the decathlon. That rollcall: world-record holder Kevin Mayer (9126, Tokyo silver medallist), Ashton Eaton (9045) and Roman Sebrle (9026)—the first to do it back in 2001. Warner’s mark of 9018 becomes an Olympic record.

    Warner demonstrated his dominance right from the start, setting down field-leading marks in the 100m and long jump, for which he was just shy of his world decathlon best with 8.24m (best = 8.28m).

    The battle for bronze came down to the final event, with Australia’s Ash Moloney claiming the prize with an elated “f*ck yeah” when the result came up on the board. The under-20 world champion is also his country’s first-ever medal in the event and he just about edged USA’s Garrett Scantling.

    Name
    Total
    100m
    Long jump
    Shot
    High jump
    400m
    110m hurdles
    Discus
    Pole vault
    Javelin
    1500m

  4. Tactical trends in the women’s 800m

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    It’s fast and it’s tactical. The 800m is the fastest individual event where athletes share lanes, opening it up to multiple tactical nuances. Rarely does an athlete have the luxury of “running on the rail” of the inside lane and complete the exact distance like their sprinter counterparts.

    To scratch the surface of what goes on in a major championship race, we’ve analysed nine Olympic and world championship finals in the women’s event since 2008. We have tracked the positions of the ultimate medallists at two keys points in the race. First at 400m, the half-way point, and then at 600m entering the final bend before the finish.

    In this map, we show the aggregated placing of medallists at those moments. For example, 25.93% of the athletes in first place at 600m went on to medal.

    This captures the race “as it was” and how athletes were reacting to each other, so it includes three disqualified performances (Savinova and Poistogova from London 2012 and Moscow world champs, 2013).

    Sitting in at places 5th-7th at the end of the first lap was more likely to result in a medal than being in 3rd or 4th. This may be athletes going with a lead group and this impacts the end-part of their race. No athlete has been in 8th/last position at 600m and gone on to medal in our sample—and remarkably no woman has won a medal when positioned 5th at this point.

    There are some notable examples of building from the back of the pack. Morocco’s Hasna Benhassi (Beijing 2008) and Britain’s Jenny Meadows (Berlin 2009) both employed a similar tactic: positioned at the back in 7th place with one lap to go, and then moving up to 6th and drifting outside of lane one at 600m to obtain a striking position. Both ended their races with bronze medals. More recently, Raevyn Rogers (USA, Doha 2019) was in the back group in 7th place at 400m and 600m, before moving out with 200m to go and finish with a silver medal.

    As part of the analysis, we looked at whether an athlete was running “tight” in lane one or drifting out—often to get in a position to move up in the field. Around half (51.85%) where tight on the inside of lane one at 400m, but this moved up to 59.26% at 600m. Being on the inside of the lane at this point improved the overall chances of a medal.

    This positioning matters; it means an athlete doesn’t have to run wide (and further) on the final bend. This inside lane running was excellently demonstrated by Canada’s Melissa Bishop-Nriagu when she took silver in the 2015 Beijing world championships (although she was almost tripped as a result of operating in a congested area with 180m to go, so it is not without its risks).

    While being a front runner at 400m and 600m was one of the best places to be to end with a medal, it was actually second place where the odds are the best. There were only two athletes in the sample who came close to a “gun-to-tape” victory (mostly leading start to finish); Pamela Jelimo (Beijing 2008) and Caster Semenya (Berlin 2009).

    In this time period, we have to make a special mention of Caster Semenya. Like David Rudisha in the men’s event, she would have influenced heavily the tactics being employed. During the championships she won her races in many different ways, including positive splits (first lap faster, Berlin 2009) and negative splits (second lap faster, Rio 2016 and London 2017). Alongside her leading strategy in Berlin, she also won gold in London 2017 after being 6th at 400m. In London 2012, where she won an initial silver (promoted to gold), she was at the back in 7th with 200m to go. The wide-open race in Doha 2019 was a very different affair and we might have a similar situation in Tokyo 2020. Who’s going to step up?

    Athing Mu looks in good form for the win. She is a comfortable front runner (with world-class 400m speed). At the US Trials from 400m she was in the top 2 positions, indeed she posted a 28.49 closing 200m (see our article on pacing strategies). She may even have been accelerating in these closing stages. This, coupled with her unofficial negative split at the Michael Johnson Classic when she broke the NCAA record, may suggest that her pacing approach could improve. Saying that, running a 1:56.07 and having room to improve is an exciting place to be, or perhaps she is set to be the athlete that shapes the field around what she wants to do.

  5. Analysis: McLaughlin’s 400m hurdles world record

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    Their last three races have produced three world records. Sydney McLaughlin vs Dalilah Muhammad is one of the best rivalries in track and field today, but it’s Muhammed who has been more dominant in head-to-heads and taking the records. Are we seeing the balance begin to change?

    In the combined 30 hurdles from those three races, McLaughlin has been behind Muhammad for 29 of them—only taking the lead on the final hurdle in the US trials to be the first woman under 52 seconds in the event. We know Muhammad gets out hard, while McLaughlin finishes strong; her time from the last hurdle to the finishing line in the trials (5.40) was just short of the fastest ever—the 5.39 that she set in her world junior record.

    Overall McLaughlin is going to run a more even race between the two; it’s a question of whether she can rein in Muhammad over the final hurdles. At the US trials she did it, moving into the lead at hurdle 10 as you can see from the splits.

    The circumstances are different from their last meeting in the 2019 world championships. The victor in Doha that time, Muhammad has had an interrupted season contracting covid-19 and even clocked a 55-second race in her first outing of the season. To come down to 52.42 in time for the trials is an incredible turnaround (previous splits suggest it’s the first half of the race that will become sharper in Tokyo). Muhammad ran “her race” in both Doha 2019 and Eugene 2021: consistently putting together 15 strides from the second to eighth hurdle, dropping to 16s for the last two meaning a temporary switch to her weaker left leg.

    It’s McLaughlin who has evolved from Doha. In 2019, you might recall in the run up to hurdle eight she drops to 16 strides (one hurdle before Muhammad makes the switch) and has to use to her weaker left leg for two of the final three hurdles. It’s a noticeable adjustment despite a strong overall finish.

    You can see how this is ironed out in her stride pattern. These charts show her strides and lead-hurdling legs from Doha 2019 and Eugene 2021. McLaughlin’s more controlled pattern meant that she was able to rely on her stronger hurdling leg (right) in the more fatigued part of the race. It sets up a stronger finish to overhaul Muhammad—and ultimately delivers a world record.

    Doha 2019

    McLaughlin stride patten

    US trials 2021

    McLaughlin stride patten

    McLaughlin had the perfect position (lane 6) to judge the race and the perfect “pacemaker” in Muhammad (lane 7). Knowing she would go out fast, she could track her adopting a 14-stride pattern that demonstrated her ease at switching between legs in the early part of the race. (Utilising a left leg lead also means that an athlete can run on the inside of the curve, saving distance/time. Karsten Warholm completed all ten hurdles with a left-leg lead in his recent world record—this approach could be worth up to 0.13 in the men’s event by some estimates.) Then after hurdle five, she puts together a storming series of 15 strides leading with her strong leg all the way home. Was this an approach designed to play to her strengths to beat Muhammad or is this part of McLaughlin’s evolution? Either way no woman has ever run a faster race in the event.

    In Tokyo there will be another athlete they will both have to contend with. The emergence of the Netherland’s Femke Bol, who recently ran 52.37, means it might not be an all-American affair. Like McLaughlin, at 21 she could become the youngest-ever winner of the women’s event supplanting Nawal El Moutawakel, Morocco’s first ever Olympic gold medallist, who was 22 when she won the inaugural event at the 1984 Games.

    It felt inevitable that McLaughlin would put together a world record race, just as it feels inevitable that she will break it again. She recently stated her ambition of running 15 strides between each hurdle, “that’s what a perfect race looks like”. If someone is going to put together that perfect race you would probably bet it would be her. But don’t be surprised if it takes another world record for whoever wins the gold in Tokyo this summer.

    The unofficial splits were provided by ATLAS, a system powered by PrimeTime Timing and Karmarush. PJ Vazel did a masterful breakdown of Muhammad’s first world record from July 2019 which has informed this analysis.

  6. McLaughlin and Muhammad

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    “I wouldn’t have a 52.2 without her, she wouldn’t have a 52.16 without me” says Sydney McLaughlin on her rivalry with Dalilah Muhammad, the reigning world and Olympic champion. In that record-breaking race in Doha 2019 we witnessed two athletes pushing each other not only for the world title, but taking women’s 400m hurdles to new heights.

    As gripping a rivalry as it is, it’s also imbalanced. Muhammad is a decade older than McLaughlin, has dominated the head-to-heads (6-2), and remains the world record holder. McLaughlin has time and immense talent on her side, recently stating that she wants to put together the “perfect race” emulating Edwin Moses with an ambitious stride pattern. “No woman has run it with 15 strides between each hurdle. That’s what a perfect race looks like.” (Moses achieved a 13-stride pattern.)

    Whether McLaughlin will stick to the 400m hurdles long term remains to be seen, but Muhammad has kept her waiting for a global title. It’s a hotly anticipated head-to-head for Tokyo 2021—but both need to successfully navigate the US trials first. We may get a glimpse of who might be taking the Olympic crown this summer.

  7. Götzis 2021: decathlon

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    This year’s Gotzis was all about Damian Warner. He has now taken the Gotzis decathlon crown a record six times, long jumped a Canadian national record and decathlon best (8.28m) and went number four on the all-time list (a whisker off the the 9,000+ club with 8995).

    It ended a Canada 1-2 with Lapage coming through with a new PB. There was also a strong showing from Belgians Van Der Plaetsen and Pittomvils, and the Belarusian Zhuk who all score new decathlon PBs. Take a look below how the top eight performed against their PBs coming into the competition (the sorting function and overall scores are from their Gotzis results).

    Name
    Total
    100m
    Long jump
    Shot
    High jump
    400m
    110m hurdles
    Discus
    Pole vault
    Javelin
    1500m

  8. Götzis 2021: heptathlon

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    Xenia Krizsan set a new PB and Hungarian national record scoring 6651 to take the heptathlon title in Gotzis, bettering Vetter who finished second with 6536 points.

    You could throw a blanket over 4th-7th with only 10 points separating them. In that pack were three lifetime bests. Notably, German Vanessa Grimm added an impressive 269 points to her overall best score, which included five new (or equalled) individual event bests. See below how the top eight fared relatively against their PBs coming into the competition (the sorting function and overall scores are from their Gotzis results).

    Name
    Total
    100m hurdles
    High jump
    Shot put
    200m
    Long jump
    Javelin
    800m

  9. Top competitor: Mariya Lasitskene

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    In Gateshead very little went in favour of the favourites. Perhaps it was the rain, the cold—or early season rustiness following a limited 2020 season.

    Mariya Lasitskene’s fourth-place finish in the high jump was the equivalent of a small earthquake in our new Competitor Index (CDX). Lasitskene is the top-ranked current competitor, not only in the high jump but also across all events both men and women. Her 14,595-point high achieved in September 2019 is the highest score ever recorded.

    The CDX has so far crunched four years of Diamond League and World Championships data to rank the “best competitors” in track and field. It compares expected results against actual results. Where an athlete performs better (or consistently beats high-quality fields), they accumulate points. Worse, they lose points.

    Read more about CDX or view the rankings

    Lasitskene’s readiness to compete and consistently beat the best in track and field’s premier competitions is why she has reached the top (she rarely misses a Diamond League meet for example). It also means that any athlete that is able to beat her can gain significant CDX points.

    It was Kamila Licwinko yesterday (1,421 gain), while Mirela Demireva gained 1,322 in Rabat in 2018 and Vashti Cunningham picked up 1,459 with victory in a 2019 World championship qualifying round. These have only been minor setbacks for Lasitskene who has returned quickly back to winning ways.

    How long will she remain on top? Her consistency puts her on another level, but there are plenty of rivals waiting in the wings in what can be one of the most competitive and unpredictable events. We’ll see how this season unfolds.

    View the CDX rankings

  10. How much will a quarter miler improve outdoors?

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    In our last indoor-related article of the year, we’ll shift our focus to the men’s 400m. Indoors is a strange environment for a quarter miler: having to share a lane and cover two laps, when usually one suffices. Combine these factors with the indoor “drag” on all runners, 400m athletes can hope for a healthy improvement outdoors. But by how much?

    To come up with an answer we have used data from 2016 (which featured both the world indoor champs and the Olympics) and paired indoor and outdoor performances of the top 300 athlete where available. This resulted in a list of 110 athletes.

    Using linear regression (that is, a “line of best fit”) on the resulting scatter plots reveals no catch-all answer. Instead it depends on how fast an athlete was: a faster time indoors meant less improvement outdoors—with the reverse true for “slower” performers who improved significantly more. Here’s the result:

    400m men: 2016 indoor and outdoor times

    outdoor
    indoor

    Of course, the line finds the “best fit” through all the points so there will be exceptions either side. If we use this as our guide though, it suggests a male athlete running 45.4 indoors can be expect to improve 0.67 second outdoors (or 1.48%), while at the lower end (around 48.0) an athlete can expect a 1.87 second improvement (or 3.89%). Compare this to the 800m men in the same year, where the improvement of the fastest and slowest is less disparate: an 800m leader can expect a 1.86% improve, while the “slowest” will expect around 3.5%.

    If you watch someone like Pavel Maslak this all makes sense (who, according to this model, should have run slightly faster outdoors in 2016). If you “Maslak” the 400m, that is, get out hard and lead from start to finish, your path is unobstructed—and the less potential gains there are outdoors. Bralon Taplin, who slightly out-performed the model with 0.82 second improvement, similarly ran his 2016 indoor best (45.20) with a 2.56 second winning margin and unchallenged all the way.

    There are also those on the top indoor list who get caught up, have to jostle and probably run a bit further. Both David Verburg (46.27 to 44.82) and Nery Brenes (46.49 to 44.60) improved massively outdoors, while recording their best indoor times finishing third and fourth respectively in their races (that is, they had reckon with people in their way).

    There must be plenty of quarter miles looking forward to having a lane to call their own—and it’s probably those who miss this the most that have the most to gain outdoors.